Tasmeen Roc writes:
Myanmar is enduring one of the worst humanitarian crises in our region. Since the military coup on 1 February 2024, over 5,555 people have been confirmed dead, with an additional 2,300 deaths still to be verified. The actual extent of fatalities is likely much higher.
The junta has arrested 27,246 individuals, with 20,781 still detained. This includes 713 children, some of whom are younger than one year old. Reports of severe torture, including the abuse of children, are widespread. The violence has forced over 3.3 million people to flee their homes, making them vulnerable to trafficking and abuse. Around 18.6 million are in urgent need of aid.
Anti-junta Forces Making Gains
Amid these dire circumstances, anti-junta forces have made significant strategic gains. Since Operation 1027 began in October 2023, and its second phase in June 2024, there have been major successes. Thousands of regime soldiers have surrendered, and hundreds of junta positions, including a major regional command headquarter, have been captured. The junta’s control is now minimal in townships in border areas, and anti-junta forces are advancing towards Naypyitaw and central Myanmar. Reports of an internal coup within the junta have been dismissed but indicate dissatisfaction among the military ranks.
Rising Airstrikes
As the junta loses ground, it has increased its use of airstrikes by 300% since the coup began. The Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar reports that airstrikes have intensified fivefold in early 2024, targeting civilian infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, religious buildings, and camps for internally displaced persons. Since February 2021, the Myanmar military has conducted a staggering 1,239 airstrikes against civilian targets directly resulting in 1,137 deaths.
Forced Recruitment
To address its dwindling forces, the junta enacted a conscription law on February 10, 2024. Aiming to conscript 5,000 per month, this law requires men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve in the military for up to two years, with specialists required for up to three years. Those avoiding conscription face severe penalties, and there are widespread reports of young people being abducted into military service. Many young people are fleeing to Thailand to escape the draft.
Rohingya Facing Another Genocide
While nearly a million Rohingya are stranded in refugee camps in Bangladesh, within Myanmar over 630,000 Rohingya remain stateless and face apartheid-like conditions. The ongoing conflict between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA) has led to new displacements. Since November 2023, the AA has expanded its control in Rakhine State, leading to indiscriminate military attacks on civilians. The AA has also been involved in shelling and looting Rohingya properties, and drone and artillery strikes causing the massacre of over 200 Rohingya along the Naf River.
Australia’s Role – Opportunities for Action
Australia’s response to the crisis has been limited compared to other democracies. While countries like the US, UK, EU, and Canada have imposed sanctions on 151 individuals and 71 entities, Australia has only issued 23 sanctions since the coup in addition to five sanctions in 2018 related to the Rohingya genocide.
There is an urgent need for stronger measures to cut off the junta’s foreign revenue and prevent further civilian harm. By ramping up targeted sanctions on the Myanmar junta’s extensive business interests, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the Central Bank of Myanmar in coordination with other democracies, Australia can play a crucial role in supporting Myanmar’s path to peace and federal democracy.
***
